In the Trenches with Gary Wilhelmi

Financials
#0 year mortgages at 5%
Crude at $45 US demand increases
Apple earnings bat the street
Jobless claims 540.000 from 524,000
New house housing reports
Earnings continue
Dollar up slightly

Livestock
Few cattle in Nebraska at $82-83 off $1
$84 0ffers
Boxed beef little changed
123.0000 kill
Financial stress presses feedlots
Direct hogs up $ .30
Perk cut out down $ .50 loins steady
Kill 431,000

Grain and soybeans
Export sales Friday
Argentine beans plantings 16.5 from 17.8 due to dryness
Hot and dry in Brazil 95-100
China grain out output up 5.4%
Ukraine grain in good shape
Russian flour export up 64%
China beans imports up 12.8%
Negatives in corn: feed wheat competition, higher carryover, weak ethanol, an d falling fertilizer prices
December corn target 4.70-75 (hedge area)

Financial
Bank of America seeks more aid money and Citicorp splits in two in effort to improve performance
$350 b. bail out addition approved
CPI off .7% and yearly inflation up .1%
Oil hangs around $35

Livestock
Cash cattle firm to $136 in Nebraska beef up $1 and some Kansas trade at $83.50
Choice boxed beef up $1
Packer margins in black
Kill 125,000 likely to increase
Replacement cattle up on corn decline
Beef and pork exports up versus 2007
National direct hogs off $ .76
Pork cut out little changed
Kill on par at 436,000

Grain and soybeans
Massive soybean export sales at 1.38 MT
125,000 beans sold to unknown and 116,000 to China
Hot and dry return to S America with some rains possible in Argentina
Informa plantings due out this morning less corn and more beans expected
2.3 million fewer corn acres would keep supplies acceptable
Stocks called higher and dollar lower
Bangladesh buys 100,000 tons of wheat=lone buyer
Corn is swimming against a strong fundamental current
Crude up slightly and gold $16 better

Financial
Jobless claims up to 524,000 from 470,000
December wholesale prices off 1.9%
J.P. Morgan earnings up but short of estimate
2008 foreclosures up 81%
ECB cuts rates to 2%
Oil firms after dip to $36
Beige book weak

Livestock
Cattle and hogs influenced by falling stocks
Bitter weather trims cattle offerings
Few dressed in Nebraska at $136-138 up $2-4
Boxes up about $1
$88 offers
Show lists manageable
Watch kill still light at 112,000
Replacement cattle rise on corn fall
1-2 inventory report expected to show larger feeder cattle numbers
National direct hogs off $ /87
Pork cut out up $1.61 loins steady
Futures premium to cash
Kill 439,000 but off for week

Grains and soybeans
Soybean export sales powerful ay 1.38 MT with 851,000 to China
Chinese soy bean oil imports, however, down 49%
Wheat, just 88,000 tons and corn poor again at 216,000
EU 09-10 production pegged at 296 MT up from 292.000
Australia's grain crop second largest
Corn-soybean ratio favors bean plantings
Crude off $ .87, gold up $10, dollar down 26 points
Stocks off 103 on Dow after 246 point loss

Financial
$350 b bail out debated
Retail sales off 2.7% in December
Deutsche bank pots 4.8 b euro losses
Citigroup selling off units
Earnings begin under a recessionary cloud
Oil near $39 Bernanke sees stimulus help coming

Livestock
Cattle firming on grains decline and higher $2.76 boxes
Bitter cold threatens cattle up
Show lists manageble
Kill 126,000
National direct hogs up $ .73
Pork cut out down $1/08\Kill 431,000

Grain and soybeans
Corn inventory rises as feed, ethanol and exports decline
Friday-Sunday rains in Argentina
China correction buys 454,000 tons of beans
Average night trade volume on recovery rallies
Retail sales off 2.7%
Soybean crush today 140.9 expected up from 139.4
Brazilian group cuts bean estimates to 58.5 MT from 59.4
AFB sees corn acreage up 7%, beans 3% higher and wheat off 2% with cotton down 20% but much of that coming out of double crop
Short covering likely extending from night session
Corn plantings are a long term debate
Crude off a little, gold down $2 Dow called off 160 points and dollar up 23

Financial
Crude falls under $37
World stocks decline as Alcoa leads off 4Q earnings with a $1.19b loss
Sony posts first loss in 14 years
China slump worsens
Trade data expected to be negative
Dollar steady

Livestock
Boxed beef up $2 as cash sunk improving margins
Poor holiday beef demand improves slightly
2009 will be another tough year in livestock due to recession and high feed costs
$88 offers
Bitter cold on northern plains
1-1 inventory report expected to larger supplies of feeder cattle
Kill light at 122,000
Direct hogs up $ .61
Pork cut out down $ .08 with loins steady to $1 higher
Kill 431,000

Grains and soybeans
Corn checked at 5 cent further decline after limit down on Monday
Increased corn supply projections now comfortable
Beans carry over surprisingly raised
Beans fall below $10
Reduced wheat plantings off set higher carry over
S American, plantings may be less than reported
S American input costs an issue
Brazil gets good rains in south over weekend
Argentina has been getting light rains every few days helps sustain beans at 49.5 MT
Next event in corn may be March plantings
Corn and wheat export demand poor but beans have been strong